Research and Policy Papers

Spending Growth and Real Estate Taxes

Last updated: March 2021
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Using county and school projections across key categories, we determine how much money would be needed in real estate taxes to balance the budget. We use historical assessment rates to determine how the increase in real estate taxes will be distributed among different types of Arlington homeowners.

Equity in Arlington County Open Public Spaces

Last updated: February 2021
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In joint work with Jesse Boeding and Kari Klaus on behalf of the Arlington County Civic Federation (CivFed) Parks and Recreation Committee, we analyzed equity in access to public open spaces and tree coverage across race, income, and housing type. This is the white paper underlying the committee's resolution. Note: we updated the projections for the maps; the qualitative results did not change, however, quantiative values did shift.

Budget and Environmental Effects of The Towns of 24th Development

Last updated: November 2020
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We analyze the effects development of the Towns of 24th, a set of eight townhouses that are replacing two detached single family homes in the Green Valley neighborhood. We examine both the budgetary effects and the environmental effects of this development. We use tools developed in part by the U.S. Forestry Service to approximate the benefits lost as neighboring trees are impacted by the development.

Merion Pike West: Phase 1

Last updated: August 2020
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We analyze a planned development in Arlington Mill called Merion Pike West, Phase 1. Between 2022 and 2031, we expect that deficits will rise by between $17 and $23 million. Most of the county's anticipated deficit is driven by an increase in student enrollment.

Arlington Duplexes and the Missing Middle

Last updated: July 2020
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We analyze proposals that aspire to increase the number of affordable houses by increasing density and allowing construction of duplexes in neighborhoods currently restricted to detached single family. We find that land and property values are simply too high in Arlington to make these proposals an effective tool to address the shortage of "missing middle" residences.

Rouse Property Development

Last updated: May 2020
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We analyze a possible development of the Rouse property, a nine-acre site near McKinley and Wilson. We find that the county would have to pay more than $25 million to purchase this property to save it as open space, however, as much as $13 million of that would be recouped by 2030 from lower expenditures on school and county services for the new residents.

2021-2030 Arlington Budget Projections

Last updated: February 2020
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We project revenues and spending across numerous categories through 2030. High assessment increases on existing properties plus large new developments lead to 4.9 percent annual increases in real estate taxes, which is offset by lower growth in other categories. Increased school enrollment plus smaller spending increases in other categories drives spending growth. The results is nearly perfectly balanced budget in 2030. The greatest sources uncertainty are in real estate assessment growth rates and student enrollment growth rates, particularly from 2025-2030.

Projecting Student Enrollment

Last updated: November 2020
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Student enrollment is the main driver of spending growth (outside of inflation) in the county for the next ten years. We project student generation factors (SGFs)--the number of students on average coming from each type of property--for the next few years based on long-term demographic trends. In this paper, we describe those trends, how we extrapolate from those trends in the next 10 years, and how development and redevelopment are used to generate our projections of student enrollment through 2030.

Projecting County Revenues

Last updated: February 2020
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We describe the way that we project revenues. We describe how each category of revenue is tied to projections for population, assessments, and property development.

Projecting County Spending

Last updated: February 2020
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We describe the way that we project spending. Using the Arlington Analytics model projections for population and student growth as well as the development reports and estimates of future development, we have estimates for demographics and business that we can use to project spending needs in the next 10 years. We project spending across a broad number of categories, each of which is described in detail in the paper.

An Overview of the Arlington Analytics Model

Last updated: February 2020
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In this white paper, we describe the data sources we use to develop the Arlington model. Then we describe how we use the model to facilitate our analyses of current economic and fiscal conditions in the county. Lastly, we provide an overview on how we forecast growth and finances within the county, specifically how we develop 10-year projections for spending and revenues.