Research and Policy Papers

2021-2030 Arlington Budget Projections

Last updated: February 2020
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We project revenues and spending across numerous categories through 2030. High assessment increases on existing properties plus large new developments lead to 4.9 percent annual increases in real estate taxes, which is offset by lower growth in other categories. Increased school enrollment plus smaller spending increases in other categories drives spending growth. The results is nearly perfectly balanced budget in 2030. The greatest sources uncertainty are in real estate assessment growth rates and student enrollment growth rates, particularly from 2025-2030.

Projecting Student Enrollment

Last updated: February 2020
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Student enrollment is the main driver of spending growth (outside of inflation) in the county for the next ten years. We project student generation factors (SGFs)--the number of students on average coming from each type of property--for the next few years based on long-term demographic trends. In this paper, we describe those trends, how we extrapolate from those trends in the next 10 years, and how development and redevelopment are used to generate our projections of student enrollment through 2030.

Projecting County Revenues

Last updated: February 2020
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We describe the way that we project revenues. We describe how each category of revenue is tied to projections for population, assessments, and property development.

Projecting County Spending

Last updated: February 2020
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We describe the way that we project spending. Using the Arlington Analytics model projections for population and student growth as well as the development reports and estimates of future development, we have estimates for demographics and business that we can use to project spending needs in the next 10 years. We project spending across a broad number of categories, each of which is described in detail in the paper.

An Overview of the Arlington Analytics Model

Last updated: February 2020
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In this white paper, we describe the data sources we use to develop the Arlington model. Then we describe how we use the model to facilitate our analyses of current economic and fiscal conditions in the county. Lastly, we provide an overview on how we forecast growth and finances within the county, specifically how we develop 10-year projections for spending and revenues.