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Research and Policy Papers


Retirement and Real Estate Taxes

Last updated: June 2022
(click here to download paper)

We evaluate the impact of rising assessments on Arlington's retirees. We find that, excluding tax relief, the average retiree pays more than $3,000 per year ($1,200 inflation-adjusted) in real estate taxes. The impact of these rising assessments is not constrained to any particular geographic area. It is uncorrelated with income, which likely makes these tax increases regressive.

Related Resources:


Real Estate Tax Relief Working Group

Missing Middle and Housing Prices

Last updated: May 2022
(click here to download paper)

We evaluate the effects of new Missing Middle construction on housing prices in Arlington. We find a modest downward pressure on prices in the townhouse and duplex market segments, upward price pressure on detached single-family houses, minimal effects on the prices of apartments, and minimal overall real estate costs across the county.

Related Resources:


Missing Middle Study
Part 2 Draft Framework
Housing Demand, Cost-of-Living Inequality, and the Affordability Crisis
The Economic Implications of Housing Supply

Plan Langston Boulevard: Total

Last updated: October 2021
(click here to download paper)

Plan Langston Boulevard focuses on land use in five potential areas of development, beginning with area one in the west near East Falls Church metro and finishing in the east with area five in North Highlands. In this section, we analyze the fiscal fiscal effects of development in all five areas.

Related Resources:


Plan Langston Boulevard
Neighborhood Areas
Arlington Analytics Model
Arlington Analytics - Revenue Model
Arlington Analytics - Spending Model

Plan Langston Boulevard: Area One

Last updated: October 2021
(click here to download paper)

Plan Langston Boulevard focuses on land use in five potential areas of development, beginning with area one in the west near East Falls Church metro and finishing in the east with area five in North Highlands. In this section, we analyze the fiscal fiscal effects of development in area one around East Falls Church.

Related Resources:


PLB: Areas 1 and 5 Slides
PLB: Areas 1 and 5 Presentation
Arlington Analytics Model
Arlington Analytics - Revenue Model
Arlington Analytics - Spending Model

Plan Langston Boulevard: Area Two

Last updated: October 2021
(click here to download paper)

Plan Langston Boulevard focuses on land use in five potential areas of development, beginning with area one in the west near East Falls Church metro and finishing in the east with area five in North Highlands. In this section, we analyze the fiscal fiscal effects of development in area two, near the Lee Harrison Shopping Center.

Related Resources:


PLB: Area 2 Slides
PLB: Area 2 Presentation
Arlington Analytics Model
Arlington Analytics - Revenue Model
Arlington Analytics - Spending Model

Plan Langston Boulevard: Areas Three and Four

Last updated: October 2021
(click here to download paper)

Plan Langston Boulevard focuses on land use in five potential areas of development, beginning with area one in the west near East Falls Church metro and finishing in the east with area five in North Highlands. In this section, we analyze the fiscal fiscal effects of development in areas three and four, from Fire Station #8 to Cherrydale.

Related Resources:


PLB: Areas 3 and 4 Slides
PLB: Areas 3 and 4 Presentation
Arlington Analytics Model
Arlington Analytics - Revenue Model
Arlington Analytics - Spending Model

Plan Langston Boulevard: Area Five

Last updated: October 2021
(click here to download paper)

Plan Langston Boulevard focuses on land use in five potential areas of development, beginning with area one in the west near East Falls Church metro and finishing in the east with area five in North Highlands. In this section, we analyze the fiscal fiscal effects of development in area five, in the east around Lyon Village and North Highlands.

Related Resources:


PLB: Areas 1 and 5 Slides
PLB: Areas 1 and 5 Presentation
Arlington Analytics Model
Arlington Analytics - Revenue Model
Arlington Analytics - Spending Model

The Pentagon City Planning Study and Open Public Green Space

Last updated: June 2021
(click here to download paper)

Using information from the Pentagon City Planning Study process, U.S. Census data, and county data on parks, recreational facilities, parking lots, and buildings, we evaluate access for open public space for Pentagon City. We show that current plans lead to a significant reduction in unrestricted, unreserved open public space in the area, particularly for low-income residents. Moreover, we show that plans for Hopper Park do not ameliorate the area's needs.

Related Resources:


2019 Arlington Equity Resolution
Pentagon City Planning Study
Info on Pentagon City
PCPS Presentation
2021 CivFed Parks Equity Study

Missing Middle and Housing Affordability in the D.C. Area

Last updated: May 2021
(click here to download slides)

These are the slides from an
Arlington Committee of 100 presentation about Missing Middle in Arlington and Arlington's role in housing future residents in the Washington D.C. region.

Related Resources:


Housing Arlington Missing Middle Report
Virginia House Bill 152
Minneapolis 2040 Comprehensive Plan
Seattle's Plan For Accessory Dwellings
2015 Arlington Affordable Housing Master Plan
Arlington Open Data: 2020 assessments

Spending Growth and Real Estate Taxes

Last updated: March 2021
(click here to download paper)

Using county and school projections across key categories, we determine how much money would be needed in real estate taxes to balance the budget. We use historical assessment rates to determine how the increase in real estate taxes will be distributed among different types of Arlington homeowners.

Related Resources:


2022 APS Proposed Budget
Arlington County 2022 Proposed Budget
Quarterly Development Tracking Report
2019 Multi-Year Financial Forecast
2019 APS Enrollment Report

Equity in Arlington County Open Public Spaces

Last updated: February 2021
(click here to download paper)

In joint work with Jesse Boeding and Kari Klaus on behalf of the Arlington County Civic Federation (CivFed) Parks and Recreation Committee, we analyzed equity in access to public open spaces and tree coverage across race, income, and housing type. This is the white paper underlying the committee's resolution. Note: we updated the projections for the maps; the qualitative results did not change, however, quantiative values did shift.

Related Resources:


Trust for Public Land
Arlington Civic Federation
Urban Land Institute
Public Spaces Master Plan
ARLGIS
Arlington Open Data
U.S. Census Bureau

Budget and Environmental Effects of The Towns of 24th Development

Last updated: November 2020
(click here to download paper)

We analyze the effects development of the Towns of 24th, a set of eight townhouses that are replacing two detached single family homes in the Green Valley neighborhood. We examine both the budgetary effects and the environmental effects of this development. We use tools developed in part by the U.S. Forestry Service to approximate the benefits lost as neighboring trees are impacted by the development.

Related Resources:


i-Tree tools
Arlington Open Data: 2020 assessments
Towns of 24th sales page

Merion Pike West: Phase 1

Last updated: August 2020
(click here to download paper)

We analyze a planned development in Arlington Mill called Merion Pike West, Phase 1. Between 2022 and 2031, we expect that deficits will rise by between $17 and $23 million. Most of the county's anticipated deficit is driven by an increase in student enrollment.

Related Resources:


ArlNow.com Report
Arlington Development Summary
Arlington Analytics' County Model
April 2020 Submitted Plans

Arlington Duplexes and the Missing Middle

Last updated: July 2020
(click here to download paper)

We analyze proposals that aspire to increase the number of affordable houses by increasing density and allowing construction of duplexes in neighborhoods currently restricted to detached single family. We find that land and property values are simply too high in Arlington to make these proposals an effective tool to address the shortage of "missing middle" residences.

Related Resources:


Housing Arlington Missing Middle Report
Virginia House Bill 152
Minneapolis 2040 Comprehensive Plan
Seattle's Plan For Accessory Dwellings
2015 Arlington Affordable Housing Master Plan
Arlington Open Data: 2020 assessments

Rouse Property Development

Last updated: May 2020
(click here to download paper)

We analyze a possible development of the Rouse property, a nine-acre site near McKinley and Wilson. We find that the county would have to pay more than $25 million to purchase this property to save it as open space, however, as much as $13 million of that would be recouped by 2030 from lower expenditures on school and county services for the new residents.

Related Resources:


ArlNow.com Report
Public Spaces Master Plan
Arlington Analytics' County Model
Arlington Magazine Rouse Profile

2021-2030 Arlington Budget Projections

Last updated: February 2020
(click here to download paper)

We project revenues and spending across numerous categories through 2030. High assessment increases on existing properties plus large new developments lead to 4.9 percent annual increases in real estate taxes, which is offset by lower growth in other categories. Increased school enrollment plus smaller spending increases in other categories drives spending growth. The results is nearly perfectly balanced budget in 2030. The greatest sources uncertainty are in real estate assessment growth rates and student enrollment growth rates, particularly from 2025-2030.

Related Resources:


Arlington County Budget
APS 2020 Budget
Arlington County Capital Inprovement Plan
Arlington County Open Data
Arlington Analytics Introductory Budget Tool
Arlington Analytics Full Budget Tool
Arlington Analytics Revenue Visualization

Projecting Student Enrollment

Last updated: November 2020
(click here to download paper)

Student enrollment is the main driver of spending growth (outside of inflation) in the county for the next ten years. We project student generation factors (SGFs)--the number of students on average coming from each type of property--for the next few years based on long-term demographic trends. In this paper, we describe those trends, how we extrapolate from those trends in the next 10 years, and how development and redevelopment are used to generate our projections of student enrollment through 2030.

Related Resources:


APS School Elementary School Planning 2021
APS Boundary Process 2018
APS Enrollment Projections
Arlington Analytics Student Enrollment Projections
Arlington Analytics Student Calculator
Arlington Analytics Boundary Builder
APS School Stats

Projecting County Revenues

Last updated: February 2020
(click here to download paper)

We describe the way that we project revenues. We describe how each category of revenue is tied to projections for population, assessments, and property development.

Related Resources:


Arlington County Budget
Arlington County Open Data
Arlington Analytics Introductory Budget Tool
Arlington Analytics Full Budget Tool
Arlington Analytics Revenue Visualization

Projecting County Spending

Last updated: February 2020
(click here to download paper)

We describe the way that we project spending. Using the Arlington Analytics model projections for population and student growth as well as the development reports and estimates of future development, we have estimates for demographics and business that we can use to project spending needs in the next 10 years. We project spending across a broad number of categories, each of which is described in detail in the paper.

Related Resources:


Arlington County Budget
Arlington County Open Data
Arlington Analytics Introductory Budget Tool
Arlington Analytics Full Budget Tool
Arlington Analytics Spending Visualization
Arlington Analytics Capital Investment Plan Visualization

An Overview of the Arlington Analytics Model

Last updated: February 2020
(click here to download paper)

In this white paper, we describe the data sources we use to develop the Arlington model. Then we describe how we use the model to facilitate our analyses of current economic and fiscal conditions in the county. Lastly, we provide an overview on how we forecast growth and finances within the county, specifically how we develop 10-year projections for spending and revenues.

Related Resources:


Arlington County Budget
Arlington County Open Data
Arlington Analytics Introductory Budget Tool
Arlington Analytics Full Budget Tool
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